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Weekly Quotes | The meat duck industry finally

2022-07-18 来源：羽绒金网浏览量：2037

summary

At the current breeding end, the output of ducks is insufficient, and the shipment of duck feathers is shrinking. However, the duck market is optimistic, and August is the peak season for duck product sales in previous years, so farmers are actively replenishing the stalls.

Recently, the demand for fabrics of down jackets has increased, and the production season of down products is coming. The overall price of down also showed signs of stabilizing and picking up, and some down companies began to raise their quotations. It's just that most clothing companies are still very cautious in placing orders.

U.S. inflation hit a nearly 41-year high in June, further straining daily life for U.S. households and potentially setting the stage for another sharp rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The media pointed out that the Fed rate hike may lead to a stagnation of the global economy, while the RMB exchange rate will be under short-term pressure.

Monday: The price of white goose down rose

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.696

Tuesday: The price of gray duck down rose

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.7287

Wednesday: Price rise of gray duck down

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.4831

Thursday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.7265

Friday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.7503

good news

Foreign trade returned to double-digit growth in June, supported by the expansion of manufacturing in Europe and the United States

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 13, my country's foreign trade imports and exports increased by 9.5% year-on-year in May, while the growth rate in June further increased to 14.3%. This month's situation quickly reversed the downward trend of growth in April, laying a solid foundation for the stability and improvement of foreign trade throughout the year.

In RMB terms, in June, my country's total import and export value was 3.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.3%. Among them, exports were 2.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 22%; imports were 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%.

In June, the export of textile and clothing was 210.47 billion yuan, an increase of 18.1% year-on-year, of which the clothing export was 120.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% and a month-on-month increase of 23.7%. From January to June 2022, clothing exports were 516.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%.

Analysts said that although overseas demand slowed down in June, the manufacturing industry in Europe and the United States is still in the expansion range, which supports my country's exports. In addition, the weakening of the RMB exchange rate in the second quarter also benefited exports to a certain extent.

Looking forward to exports in the second half of the year, analysts believe that, from the perspective of the inventory cycle, although US retailers have entered the stage of passive replenishment of inventory, US manufacturers are still in the stage of active inventory replenishment.

Secondly, in the context of the increasing inflationary pressure in the United States, the Biden administration is studying the cancellation of some of the tariffs imposed by former President Trump on Chinese goods, which will have a certain impact on the growth rate of my country's exports in the second half of the year. support.

The popularity of down jacket fabrics continues, and the autumn and winter orders of some domestic clothing brands are gradually launched

Although the overall fabric market fell in July, the popularity of down jacket fabric Spring Yafang remained unabated. According to the manufacturer, at least 1 trailer is shipped every day. According to the salesman of the dyeing factory, the amount of grey fabrics currently entering the warehouse is relatively prominent, which can occupy 1/3 of the warehouse volume in one day.

As early as the beginning of June, although the domestic sales market was weak, the foreign trade market has ushered in an improvement. The most important thing is that foreign orders for autumn and winter fabrics have been placed, but they are characterized by small quantities and high speed. Among them, Chun Yafang is one of the main autumn and winter clothing fabrics.

A person in charge of a trading company said: "At present, some domestic clothing brands have already placed orders for autumn and winter, mainly for autumn and winter fabrics such as spring Asian spinning and nylon spinning. But now it is gradually starting, and it is not obvious. It’s not too big, and there will be more and more in the future.”

It can be seen that the autumn and winter orders in the domestic market are still in their infancy, and only a few big brands follow the foreign market to the forefront. After the start of the domestic double 11 e-commerce sales season, it may further accelerate the delivery speed of Chunya Textile.

The revenue of down jacket OEMs has repeatedly hit new highs, and the order volume has reached the fourth quarter

The down jacket foundry Quang Viet (4438) recorded a new high in June consolidated revenue in the same period. The industry pointed out that Quang Viet's operation was not affected by adverse market factors, and it is expected that the operation of Quang Viet should maintain double-digit growth throughout the year with the increase in the proportion of products shipped with high average unit price.

Quang Viet pointed out that outdoor brand customers such as The North Face, Patagonia, Aritzia, etc. have placed strong orders. In addition, the production and sales of sports brands are also booming. There is no adjustment of orders in hand. In 2022, brand customers have plenty of orders, and the visibility has reached the fourth quarter. Full capacity throughout the year.

Looking forward to the future, Quang Viet said that the Group's development focus will continue to expand its production base in Jordan, diversify product categories and win orders from new brand customers, and the scale of operations will continue to expand.

Down factory KWONG LUNG (8916)'s second-quarter revenue of ready-to-wear garments reached 1.667 billion yuan, an annual increase of 31.6%. This is also since Vietnam's unblocking in the fourth quarter of last year, its single-season revenue has reached more than 1 billion yuan for three consecutive quarters. A new record for a single season in history.

The main outdoor functional products (down jackets, mountaineering sleeping bags, etc.) in the second quarter increased by 11.3% compared with last year. Zhan Hebo, chairman of KWONG LUNG, said that in addition to the initial investment of US$10 million to increase the garment production line of the Indonesian factory, it will also enhance the existing production capacity in Vietnam and increase the outsourcing capacity in the future.

KWONG LUNG's products mainly include garments, down materials and home textile bedding.

Regarding the overall operating outlook for the second half of the year, KWONG LUNG pointed out that the production capacity of ready-to-wear garments is still fully loaded, the momentum of shipments will continue, and the annual growth rate in the second half of the year may exceed that of the first half. Home textiles will be better than the same period last year, while down can also maintain the same first half.

bad news

Shandong meat duck industry "stabilizes and rebounds", it is necessary to seek benefits from deep processing of down

"Duck products are rising in the past two days, and the price of duck fry is also rising every day, which gives us hope for the future. I think that in the second half of the year or even next year, the bosses of the duck industry can develop with confidence." Chairman of Hekangyuan Group Co., Ltd. Meng Qingli said at the first China Waterfowl Industry Five Mountains Forum held recently.

Liu Changsheng, chairman of Linqu Changsheng Poultry Industry Co., Ltd. and chairman of Shandong Duck Breeding Alliance, said that after more than 30 months of downturn, the duck industry has just seen some light. He introduced that since 2020, the duck industry has encountered industry-wide difficulties, with serious excess capacity and losses in the downstream of the industrial chain.

"Don't be tempted and stimulated when the market is better, and expand the scale blindly. From the rapid development in the past few years to the severe downturn in the past two years, we have experienced ups and downs, and the next step is to focus on quality under the premise of orderly development. , improve the level of the entire industry." Liu Changsheng said.

According to the monitoring of the national waterfowl industry technology system, in 2021, Shandong Province will sell 2.006 billion commercial ducks, accounting for nearly half of the country; the output value will be 40.41 billion yuan, accounting for 39.72% of the country, and more than 60,000 commercial geese will be sold, accounting for 10.6% of the country.

However, most of Shandong meat duck enterprises provide raw materials such as roast duck embryos, dried duck, and braised duck for food enterprises in other provinces. At the bottom of the entire duck industry chain, the income is also the least. Experts said that Shandong duck industry should consider how to extend its industrial chain.

Wang Baowei, Dean of the School of Food Science and Engineering, Qingdao Agricultural University, said: "Although Shandong's duck production capacity has dropped by 500 million, the decline is relatively slow. All aspects of the industry must no longer blindly invest in projects or introduce social funds, and the scale should be moderate. "

Wang Baowei also said that deep processing is a high value-added path, and the Shandong meat duck industry should seek benefits from deep processing. "As far as I know, Shandong doesn't make any money for down, but companies in Jiangsu earn it, and Baiyangdian, every household engages in duck down processing. Why don't we do it ourselves?"

U.S. inflation beat expectations at 9.1% in June, potentially bringing the global economy to a standstill

At 8:30 p.m. on July 13, Beijing time, the latest data on the US consumer price index (CPI), which attracted much attention, was released. Data show that in June, the U.S. CPI rose 1.3% month-on-month and 9.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous month's 8.6%.

A number of US media pointed out that due to the soaring prices of natural gas, gasoline, food and rent, US inflation reached a new high in nearly 41 years in June, further putting pressure on the daily life of American families, and may be the Federal Reserve's sharp increase again. lay the foundation.

Previously, the Federal Reserve, which had already "violently raised interest rates" in June, had hinted that it would raise interest rates by 75 basis points in July in order to quell inflation. If the inflation expectations data released this Friday rises again, the possibility of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is not even ruled out.

Many economists worry that the U.S. economy is already slowing in some ways, that the Fed's efforts to curb inflation will lead it to tighten credit too aggressively, and that higher borrowing costs could trigger a recession, possibly just before next year.

Reuters pointed out that concerns that the Fed’s interest rate hikes could bring the global economy to a standstill, or even a deeper recession, are the main reasons why global stock markets have plunged 20% this year and the safe-haven dollar has soared.

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