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Weekly Quotes | More than half of June has passed, and the market is still in decline

2022-06-20 来源：羽绒金网浏览量：2861

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Recently, the high temperature in the north has "returned strongly", and the highest temperature in Zhengzhou, Jinan and other places can reach 40 ℃ or above. The ultra-high temperature is a challenge for breeding, and there may be fewer and fewer big ducks, so the quality of the raw material wool will decline, and the immature tufts will be relatively more.At the same time, the difficulty and cost of raising down for down enterprises will also increase.

Halfway through June, the down market has still not been able to get out of the downturn. Affected by multiple factors such as the epidemic, the production of domestic down products enterprises has been delayed or reduced, and the order volume of the finished down product market is insufficient. However, with the timely adjustment of policies, China's "economic defense war" has begun.

Affected by the international epidemic, foreign trade enterprises are facing huge challenges, but there are opportunities in the crisis, only the innovators win, and the export of down has increased.

Monday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.7182

Tuesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.7482

Wednesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.7518

Thursday: The price of gray goose down, white duck down and gray duck down fell, white goose down remained the same

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.7099

Friday: The price of white duck down and gray duck down fell, white goose down, and gray goose down remained the same

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.6923

good news

La Niña is expected to last until the end of the year

The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) in the Niño-3.4 region is our main measure of ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation). For March-May 2022, the index was -1.1°C, the second coldest March-May value on record.

The top one was -1.2°C in 1950. The spring of that year experienced La Niña, while the fall and winter ENSO were neutral but with a bias towards cold.

Another similar situation occurred in 1955 at -0.8°C. That spring's La Niña continued throughout the summer and intensified into the winter.

On a monthly average, May 2022 was the second-strongest La Niña month on record and the coldest month to date of the eight two-year La Niña events that have occurred since 1950.

Many climate models today predict that the sea surface temperature anomaly will weaken over the next month or two, resulting in a fairly close probability of La Niña and neutral in summer (52% vs. 46%). However, climate models still predict that La Niña is expected to continue through the end of the year (58% probability, slightly lower than last month's forecast).

In general, atmospheric circulation changes caused by low ONI water temperatures in spring will last longer in the Pacific Ocean, and this La Niña event will have a more profound impact on summer climate.

For my country, it may affect the summer rainfall and typhoon activities in southern my country, and exacerbate the extreme nature of my country's climate pattern this year.

The large-scale down jacket ordering meeting kicked off, and more than a thousand merchants across the country saw the goods and placed orders

On June 15th, the 3-day 2022 Yunshang Autumn/Winter New Product Order Fair kicked off, inviting more than a thousand merchants from all over the country to come and place orders. The local temperature has rushed to 35 ℃, but the models are wearing thick down jackets.

"We designed more than 1,000 types of down jackets more than 3 months in advance, and all of them were brought to the order fair." Xu Jiajia, the representative of the Pinghu Down Industry Belt, who cooperated with Yunshang, introduced that in December last year, a group of Pinghu down jacket manufacturers settled in Yunshang and opened their doors in Hubei. sales.

The down jackets participating in the order meeting are all developed, designed and produced by Pinghu manufacturers, and there is also a self-heating down jacket. In order to cooperate with this order meeting and facilitate customers to get the goods, some factories have prepared more than one million pieces of down jackets.

It is understood that the down jackets on display at the trade fair all adopt the new national standard 90 down, which is more fluffy, warmer and of better quality than previous years.

In recent years, versatile and practical light down has been favored by consumers. Xu Jiajia introduced that the new products for autumn and winter make rational use of fabrics, craftsmanship, version and color system - it can be worn outside or stacked for inner wear, which is light, soft and portable.

Due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, both the supply and demand sides of the clothing and fashion industry have faced unprecedented challenges. Yunshang • Wuhan International Fashion Center, as a representative work of Hanzheng Street's transformation and upgrading and a portal project, held this autumn and winter order fair in the hope of promoting the recovery of the clothing and fashion industry and helping consumption.

Down jacket factories in Southeast Asia are optimistic about this year's revenue

Recently, an official data from Vietnam shows that in the first five months of 2022, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports totaled US$18.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%. The situation is generally optimistic. Duan Wenyong, director of the Organization Department of Nam Dinh Textile Co., Ltd., said that the company's orders have been fully booked until September, or even the end of the year.

Since 2022, China has shown signs of taking share in Vietnam, especially in the apparel industry. Compared with the second half of 2021, China's competitive advantage over Vietnam in the apparel industry has lost an average of more than 7 percentage points.

Wu Chaobi, general manager of Quang Viet, said that the operation scale of the group has been increasing year by year, and the cooperative relationship with existing brand customers is close, and the ordering situation of brand customers is booming.

Looking forward to the future, Quang Viet said that the Group will continue to expand production capacity, actively expand its production base in Jordan, diversify product categories and win orders from new brand customers. The past operations were affected by seasonality, resulting in the disparity between the off-peak season and peak season is expected to diminish.

Another down jacket foundry, KWONG LUNG, pointed out that garments and down raw materials continued to grow, with shipments growing by more than 69% in the first five months. Down jackets, outdoor sleeping bags and down raw materials grew by 15%, 6% and 26% respectively. Operation in the second half of the year is cautiously optimistic.

Since the second quarter is the traditional peak season for the shipment of ready-to-wear and down materials, KWONG LUNG is optimistic that the operation will continue to hit a new high in the same period. The soaring global raw material prices have also driven up product prices, and this year's gross profit margin is expected to increase significantly.

bad news

Down jacket fabric orders are mainly based on samples and sales samples, and there are not many large-scale orders.

Downstream orders are sluggish, and it is difficult for polyester products to form a benign price increase to go to the warehouse. The phased improvement in production and sales is only the transfer of inventory, which has not been digested by the terminal. In summer, the textile industry encounters a cold winter.

In the eyes of market participants, it is imminent for polyester manufacturers to digest existing inventories through load reduction. According to market sources, many companies in the polyester industry will hold meetings to discuss countermeasures on the supply side.

"At present, with the improvement of epidemic prevention and control and the superimposition of the 618 e-commerce season, orders in the domestic trade market have increased, and some orders for autumn and winter have been placed, but mainly down jacket fabric samples and sales samples are placed, and there are not many orders placed in large quantities. It focuses on the transactions of mainstream fabrics such as T400 and high-elasticity." Industry sources said.

"Recently, driven by the surge in upstream raw materials, it has indeed forced some autumn and winter grey cloth stocking needs to rebound slightly for a short time, but the price increase of grey cloths is still very weak." The senior analyst said that there is a weak improvement trend in terminal orders, but demand The rebound is not expected to be a 'V' type. "From the perspective of seasonality in previous years, this trend is expected to continue until late June, but from late June to August, the textile industry will enter a comprehensive off-season."

YaYa are ready for the second half of the year

The race has just passed halfway through, and this year's "6.18", which is called "the most difficult in history" by the industry, was flat. Platforms and merchants are showing more patience to wait for the market to recover. In addition, they have changed their high profile in previous years and have not yet clearly released their results.

However, behind the "lying flat", more actions are strategic adjustments. YaYa down jackets said that YaYa is the top 5 in the clothing list on Tmall, and Tmall has opened some additional pre-sale places for YaYa, and these pre-sale places YaYa are mainly used for testing new models, for the second half of the "99 cost-effective festival" ” and “Double 11” to prepare in advance.

Douyin is the key channel of YaYa's "6·18". Down jackets that seem to be only in demand in winter can also be sold in summer. On the one hand, according to the characteristics of Douyin users who like new and unique styles, some new products will be put on the shelves for testing.

In Shanghai, the center of e-commerce consumption, online shopping will account for about 10% of the country's total in 2021. It can be seen that the impact of the epidemic on "6.18" is self-evident. Fortunately, as of now, the recovery of Shanghai logistics is accelerating the "resurrection" of "6.18".

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