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Weekly Quotes | Warm back to warm, market transactions plummeted; gradually entering the off-season, expectations are pessimistic

2021-12-06 来源：羽绒金网浏览量：2101

summary

The rapid warming after the cold wave has hit the down product market quite a bit, and has also caused a sharp drop in the volume of the down market.However, if strong cold air strikes in late December, it may revive the overall market sentiment, and according to the weather forecast, cold air activity in January-February 2022 will become significantly stronger.

The market of finished down has gradually entered the off-season, and pessimistic expectations have begun to appear in the down raw material market. At the same time, the global epidemic situation is severe. The mutant strain "Omicron" is causing new anxiety, and the market may face uncertainty for several weeks.At this time, prepare for potential fluctuations.

With the Beijing Winter Olympics approaching, more and more international outdoor brands are also accelerating their deployment in the Chinese market.Bosideng disclosed on the evening of December 2 that its wholly-owned subsidiary had entered into an agreement to establish a joint venture with German high-end fashion brand BOGNER.Policies such as "300 million people on ice and snow" are expected to catalyze the vigorous development of domestic ice and snow sports.

Monday:Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.3872

Tuesday:Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.3794

Wednesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.3693

Thursday:The price of gray goose down and gray duck down fell, white goose down, and white duck down remained the same

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.3719

Friday: The price of white duck down fell

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.3738

good news

These changes have taken place in the down jacket market this year

On the afternoon of November 29, on the 5th floor of Ningbo No.2 Department Store, the reporter noticed that many consumers were shopping, among which down jackets became a “hot spot” for shopping.

"With little change in customer unit prices, overall sales have soared by 40% year-on-year." said Zhang Yingxia, manager of the fifth floor of Ningbo 250 Interval; styles with a'length in one hand' (that is, the length that covers the hips) are the best sellers."

According to data from JD Apparel, sales of down jackets have grown rapidly in the past few days. Among them, the number of searches related to down jackets increased by nearly 5 times from the previous month, and the turnover of thick down jackets with a filling capacity of more than 200g increased by 6.5 times year-on-year.

Compared with the past, Ningbo consumers’ cognition and demand for down jackets have gradually got rid of the single thermal function, and have begun to accept high-priced down jacket products.

The most obvious thing is that nowadays down jackets are no longer limited to the barrel-shaped bloated silhouette of the "Michelin Tire Man" style. More interesting shapes such as cloaks, waistbands, large lapels and bread jackets have begun to appear in stores, and the colors are also Become more lively.

At the Bosideng flagship store in Tianyi Square, the reporter walked into the store and saw Bosideng’s "windbreaker down jacket" this year. At first glance, it was really hard to tell that it was a down jacket.

According to the salesperson: "It looks like a windbreaker, but it is actually a configuration of a down jacket. There are also many people who come to buy it, especially business people." Compared with ordinary down jackets, the price of windbreaker down jackets is slightly higher. Pricing ranges from 2699 yuan to 5990 yuan.

The Winter Olympics is approaching, and China gathers "three great outdoor beasts"

With the Beijing Winter Olympics approaching, more and more international outdoor brands are also accelerating their deployment in the Chinese market. German luxury sports brand BOGNER, California fashion brand VOLCOM, Swedish mountaineering equipment brand Klättermusen and Swiss century-old high-end outdoor brand MAMMUT's first stores in China have all opened recently.

Klättermusen, founded in 1975, is a combination of two Swedish words, Klatter and Musen. The former means "climb" and the latter means "rat". Together with Arc’teryx and MAMMUT, it is called "the three mysterious beasts outdoors".

On November 27, the Swedish mountaineering equipment brand Klättermusen opened its first store in Hangzhou Building. The brand first entered the Chinese market through agents in 2012, and is currently available at many outdoor retailers in China.

On October 15th, another 160-year-old Swiss high-end outdoor brand MAMMUT, one of the "three outdoor beasts", opened a U-level concept store in Beijing China World Trade Center. This is the first brand new concept store opened by MAMMUT since entering China in 2013.

bad news

"Omi Keron" has been introduced to many countries and will continue to interfere with the global market

The new coronavirus variant Omicron discovered for the first time in South Africa continues to attract international attention. "Black Friday" on November 26 was supposed to be a carnival day for retailers, but on this day, international financial market stock prices fell, the Dow Jones index hit its worst day in more than a year, and international oil prices fell by about $10 per barrel.

South African scientists have issued a warning that this new strain may destroy the new coronavirus protection that humans have slowly acquired in the past two years, with immediate and visible consequences. European health experts also said on the 2nd that Omi Keron may become the main spreading strain in Europe in just a few months.

As of 08:40 on December 3, Beijing time, 33 countries and regions around the world have reported cases of infection with the "Omi Keron" variant. In order to prevent the spread of the virus, Israel and Japan have announced a blockade of their borders.

Up to now, California, New York, Colorado, Minn US President Biden announced a new round of epidemic prevention measures on the 2nd. Among them, all international travelers entering the United States, regardless of nationality and vaccination status, will be required to provide a negative test certificate within 24 hours before departure.

The information vacuum surrounding Omi Keron, a new mutant strain of the new crown, is triggering new anxiety about the epidemic, which has clearly disrupted financial markets in the previous few days. Before clearer research conclusions emerge, the market may face uncertainty that lasts for several weeks.

Some financial analysts said that if more countries tighten their anti-epidemic policies, it may increase the pressure on supply chain issues that have been prominent since the end of last year, and continue to push up global inflation.

"At present, as a whole, the impact of the new mutant virus strain on the global economy will not be as severe as last year. The process of global economic recovery is still expected. However, in the face of repeated epidemics from time to time, financial markets will remain vigilant. Prepare for potential fluctuations."

Is the cold air of Siberia hollowed out? The weather turned warmer after the cold wave

Due to the greater-than-expected cooling rate in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Northeast China, the Central Meteorological Observatory officially issued a blue cold wave warning at 6 am on November 29. This is the fourth round of large-scale cold wave weather affecting our country since October this year.

However, the medium-term weather forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory pointed out: In the next 10 days (December 3-12), the average temperature in northern Xinjiang, the eastern part of the northwestern region, and the north of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will be 1～3℃ higher than normal in the same period of the year, and the local temperature will be higher. 4～5℃; In the next 11-20 days (December 13-22), the average temperature of most parts of northern and northeastern China will be 1～2℃ lower than the same period of normal years, and the temperature of most other parts of the country will be basically close to the same period of normal year or more 1～2℃ high.

In other words, after November, when the cold air and cold waves are extremely active, around mid-December, most of our country will reverse to a trend of significantly higher temperatures! Did the four cold waves hollow out the air-conditioning in Siberia?

In fact, the previous forecast by the National Climate Center pointed out that the temperature in most parts of the country in December 2021 will be close to the same period of normal year (1991-2020 average) or higher, and the cold air activity will be significantly stronger in January-February 2022. In other words, the warmer December is still in line with the forecast, and it may turn cold later.

Recently, other regions in the northern hemisphere are experiencing cold waves. The lowest temperature at Nikkaluokat Station in northern Sweden was measured at -37.4 degrees on November 28, the lowest November record in the country since 1980.

The twisted westerly zone formed a wide deep trough over Europe, drew a large amount of cold air from the Arctic Circle to the south, and brought cold waves in many places. So will this westerly oscillation trigger a cold wave in our country?

In the short term, the cold wave still favors Europe and the United States. The weather in my country is generally calm and the cold air is weak. However, such violent fluctuating energy is buried in the circulation system of the northern hemisphere, so the evolution of the westerly zone in the later period still requires great attention, which may contribute to the winter cold wave in my country.

The price of the fabric changes every day! The boss said bluntly: There will be a holiday

"Lining cloth" of down jacket can be said to be the vane of the market. Its fluctuations in order quantity and price changes have played a significant role in guiding textile people. With the end of Double Eleven, "Lining cloth" of down jacket did not become popular with the cold winter, but the inventory gradually increased.

Mr. Wen, who specializes in "Lining cloth" of down jacket, said: "The inventory is quite large, normally 10 million meters. Recently, the price of "Lining cloth" of down jacket has fluctuated greatly, with a drop of about 30%-40%. Those who go there are all at a loss. The main thing is the weather, and no one wants to buy down jackets in the current weather."

However, some bosses said: "The inventory is low, and the main products are 320T polyester. The price of "Lining cloth" of down jacket has changed greatly, and profits are also being compressed. The current factor affecting the market is mainly hype!"

In today's textile market, the market is generally unremarkable. The overall grey cloth inventory has risen slightly to about 29.8 days, and the inventory of "Lining cloth" of down jacket will inevitably increase accordingly. Mr. Chen said: "Not very good. There is no new order. The garment factory is very cautious. If the next problem is not good, it may take a holiday early!"

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